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Profitable Forex Strategy Reddit | 3 Easy Forex Strategies Easy For MT4

Profitable Forex Strategy Reddit | 3 Easy Forex Strategies Easy For MT4

The need for a trading strategy in Forex market

https://preview.redd.it/r6u8stdmeaw51.jpg?width=1320&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=1b0292502d6e68f5c220af5a5851aeb8061b395b
Almost all trading manuals talk about the need to have your own trading strategy. First of all, the process of creating your trading scheme allows you to perfectly understand trading and exclude from it any eventuality that hides additional risk.
Profitable forex strategy: it is a type of instruction for the trader, which helps to follow a clearly verified algorithm and safeguard his deposit from emotional errors and consequences of the unpredictability of the Forex currency market.
Thanks to her, you will always know the answer to the question: how to act in certain market conditions. You have the conditions of opening a transaction, the conditions of its closing, likewise, you do not guess if it is time or not. You do what the trading strategy tells you. This does not mean that it cannot be changed. A healthy trading scheme in the forex market must be constantly adjusted, it must comply with the realities of current market trends, but there must be no unfounded arguments in it.
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Profitable Forex Strategy Reddit

Types of trading strategies
The forms of a trading strategy can combine a variety of methods. However, several of the most commonly used options can be highlighted.
  • Trading strategy based on various complementary technical indicators
  • Trading strategy using Bollinger Bands
  • Moving Average Strategy
  • Technical figures and patterns
  • Trading with Fibonacci levels
  • Candlestick trading strategy
  • Trend trading strategy
  • Flat trading strategy
  • Scalping
  • Fundamental analysis as the basis of the strategy

Three most profitable Forex strategies

Important! These strategies are the basis for building your own trading system. Indicator settings and recommended pending order levels are for consultation only. If you do not get a satisfactory outcome in the test result or in a live account, that does not mean that the problem is the strategy. It is enough to choose individual parameters of indicators under a separate asset and under the current market situation.

1. “Bali” scalping strategy

This strategy is one of the most popular, at least its description can be found on many websites. However, the recommendations will be different. According to the author's idea, "Bali" refers to scalping tactics, as it facilitates a fairly short stop loss (SL) and take profit (TP). However, the recommended time frame is high, because the signals appear not very often. The authors recommend using the H1 interval and the EUR / USD currency pair.
Indicators used:
  • Linear Weighted Moving Average. Period 48 (red line).
https://preview.redd.it/9mhs67mxeaw51.jpg?width=461&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=913d428edd4cab0a3237e7039829a76dd587f1f5
The weighted linear moving average here acts as an additional filter. Due to the fact that LWMA gives more weight to the values ​​of the last periods, the indicator in the long periods practically excludes delays. In some cases, LWMA can give a signal beforehand, but in this strategy only the moving position relative to price is important. Bearish LWMA is a buy signal, sell bullish.
  • Trend Envelopes_v2. Period 2 (orange and blue lines).
https://preview.redd.it/8bap0s41faw51.jpg?width=627&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a6236ad06765280bbfd655fa1fb4153b28aaaf56
The indicator is also based on the moving average, but the formula is slightly different for the calculation. Its marking is more precise (the impact of price noise has been eliminated). It allows you to identify the twists of the trend compared to the usual mobile with a slight anticipation. Trend Envelopes has an interesting property: the color of the line and its new location changes when the price penetrates its old trend line, a kind of signal.
  • DSS of momentum. The configuration in the screenshot below.
https://preview.redd.it/9ch27cj4faw51.jpg?width=630&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=00558bbd90378009bef33b7c96c77f884b912667
The indicator is placed in a separate window below the chart. This is an oscillator whose task is to determine the pivot points of the trend. And it does so much faster than standard oscillators. It has two lines: the signal is dotted, the additional line is solid, but the receiver has 2 kinds of colors (orange and green).
  • Important! Note that the indicators for the “Bali” strategy are chosen in such a way as to ultimately give an early signal. This gives the trader time to confirm the signal and check the fundamentals.
MA is one of the basics on MT4, the other two indicators can be found in the archive for free here. To add them to the platform, click on MT4: "File / Open data directory". In the folder that opens, follow the following path: MQL4 / Indicators. Copy the flags to the folder and restart the platform.
Also Read: Make Money With Trading
Conditions to open a long position:
  • Price penetrates the orange Trend Envelopes line from the bottom up. At the same time in the same candle there is a change of the orange line that falls to a growing celestial.
  • The candle is above LWMA. Once the above condition has been met, we wait for the candle to appear above the moving one. It is important that it closes above the LWMA red line. It is mandatory to have a Skyline Trend Envelopes on a signal candle.
  • The additional DSS of momentum line on the signal candle is green and is above the dotted line of the signal (that is, it crosses or crosses it).
We open a trade at the close of the signal candle. The recommended stop level is 20-25 points in 4-digit quotes, take profit at 40-50 points.
https://preview.redd.it/t48d55s8faw51.jpg?width=1000&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=1e93863745e74dec536178539817225767cbeb1c
The arrow indicates a signal candle where a Trend Envelopes color change occurred. Note (purple ovals) that the blue line is below the orange line and goes upwards (in other cases the signal should be ignored). In the signal candle, the green DSS of momentum line is above the dotted line.
Conditions to open a short position:
  • Price penetrates the Trend Envelopes sky line from top to bottom. At the same time in the same candle there is a change from the increasing celestial line to the falling orange.
  • The candle is below LWMA. Once the above condition has been met, we wait for the candle to appear below the mobile. It is important that it closes below the LWMA red line. It is mandatory to have an orange Trend Envelopes line on a signal candle.
  • The additional DSS of momentum line on the signal candle is orange and is below the dotted line of the signal (i.e. crosses or crosses it).
https://preview.redd.it/6uixkl1dfaw51.jpg?width=1000&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=dd53442c633e80c1e55da72cd5ffe9cda2e85b8a
Some examples where a transaction cannot be opened:
  1. In the screenshot below the signal candle closed at the moving level (red line), it was practically below it.
https://preview.redd.it/2o1wpocgfaw51.jpg?width=1000&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=58d3286bf2884b5f0dfdaa0a62b68d2d50cdabf8
  1. In the screenshot below the signal candle is DSS below its signal line. Also, the celestial line is horizontal and not ascending.
https://preview.redd.it/1nfi1etjfaw51.jpg?width=801&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ff9fcbc10a485c5102ef7a135de47332827caf54
The signals are relatively rare, a signal can be expected for several days. In half the cases, it is better to control the transaction and close in advance, without waiting for profit taking. We do not operate at the time of flat. Try this strategy directly in the browser and see the result.
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2. “Va-Bank” candle strategy

This profitable Forex strategy is weekly and can be used on different currency pairs. It is based on the spring principle of price movement, what went up quickly, sooner or later must fall. To trade you will only need a schedule on any platform and W1 time frame (although the daily interval can be used).
You should estimate the size of the candle bodies of different currency pairs ( AUDCAD , AUDJPY , AUDUSD , EURGBP , EURJPY , GBPUSD , CHFJPY , NZDCHF , EURAUD , AUDCHF , CADCHF , EURUSD , EURCAD , GBPCHF ) and choose the largest distance from the opening to the close of the candle in the framework of the week. In this to open a transaction at the beginning of the following week.
Conditions to open a long position:
  • The bearish candle, which signifies last week's movement, has a relatively large body.
Open a long position early next week. Make sure to place a stop loss at 100-140 points and a take profit at 50-70 points. When it is midweek, close the order if it has not yet been closed at take profit or stop loss. After that, wait again for the beginning of the week and repeat the procedure, in any case do not open operations at the end of the current week.
https://preview.redd.it/vuihnqspfaw51.jpg?width=1000&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=7641e9d7701911cc255c4f0c8a53e1660c35c9fe
On this chart it is clearly seen that after each large bearish candle there is necessarily a bullish candle (although smaller). The only question is what period to take where it makes sense to compare the relative length of the candles. Here everything is individual for each currency pair. Note that a rising candle was observed followed by a few small bearish candles. But when it comes to minimizing risks, it is best not to open a long response position, as the relatively small decline from the previous week may continue.
Conditions to open a short position:
  • The bullish candle, which signifies last week's movement, has a relatively large body.
We open a short position early next week.
https://preview.redd.it/tv4zmf5ufaw51.jpg?width=1000&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=61cd1dcfc4aebfa6f80343b6c51f7a6e46358602
The red arrows point to the candles that had a large body around the previous bullish candles. Almost all signals turned out to be profitable, except for the transactions indicated by a blue arrow. The shortcomings of the strategy are rare signs, albeit with a high probability of profit. The best thing is that it can be used in several pairs at the same time.
This strategy has an interesting modification based on similar logic. Investors with little capital opt for intraday strategies, as their money is insufficient to exert radical pressure on the market. Therefore, if there is a strong move on the weekly chart, this may indicate a cluster of large strong traders. In other words, if there are three weekly candles in one direction, it is most likely the fourth. Here you also have to take into account the psychological factor, 4 candles is equal to one month, and those who "push" the market in one direction, within a month will begin to set profits.
Strategy principle:
  • A "three candles" pattern (ascending and descending) formed on the weekly chart.
  • It is preferable that each subsequent candle was larger than the previous one. Doji is not taken into account (disembodied candles).
  • Stop is placed at the closing level of the first candle of the constructed formation. Take profit at 50-100% of the last candle, but it is often better to manually close the trade.
An example of this type of formation in the screenshot below.
https://preview.redd.it/iu7cwa7xfaw51.jpg?width=1000&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=9195d24b72d2bda5394614380e9e5bc167f108a5
Of the 5 patterns, 4 were effective. Lack of strategy, the pattern can be expected 2-3 months. But when launching a multi-currency strategy this expectation is justified. Consider swaps!
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3. Parabolic Profit Based on Moving Average

This strategy is universal and is usually given as an example for novice traders. It uses classic EMA (Exponential Moving Average) indicators for MT4 and Parabolic SAR, which acts as a confirmatory indicator.
The strategy is trend. Most sources suggest using it in "minutes", but price noise reduces its efficiency. It is better to use M15-M30 intervals. Currency pairs - Any, but you may need to adjust the indicator settings.
Indicators used:
  • EMA with periods 5, 25 and 50. EMA (5) in red, EMA (25) and EMA (50) in yellow. Apply to Close (closing price).
https://preview.redd.it/ly7ju8o3gaw51.jpg?width=1000&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=61dee5b0d994d09a375e01e2b9afe188dd2ee0ed
  • Parabolic SAR, parameters remain unchanged (color correct at your discretion).
https://preview.redd.it/sonpv1m8gaw51.jpg?width=1000&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=823e9ce5d279d3a98ef072694766a112a3ece775
Conditions to open a long position:
  • Red EMA (5) crosses the yellows from bottom to top.
  • Parabolic SAR is located under the sails.
Conditions to open a short position:
  • Red EMA (5) crosses the yellows from top to bottom.
  • Parabolic SAR is located above the candles.
The transaction can be opened on the same candle where the mobile crossover occurred. Stop loss at the local minimum, take profit at 20-25 points. But with the manual management of transactions you can extract great benefits. For example, close at the time of the transition from EMA (5) to a horizontal position (change of the angle of inclination of the growth to flat).
https://preview.redd.it/4un92jlegaw51.jpg?width=1000&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=406a700c00722349622d031e20d0858e4196d18b
This screen shows that all three signals (two long and one short) were effective. It would be possible to enter the market on the candle by following the signal (in order to accurately verify the direction of the trend), but you would then miss the right time to enter. It is up to you to decide whether it is worth the risk. For one-hour intervals, these parameters hardly work, so be sure to check the performance of the indicators for each period of time in a minimum span of three years.
And now that you know the theory, a few words about how to put these strategies into practice.
Ready? Then let's get started!

From the theory to the practice

Step 1. Open demo account It's free, requires no deposit, takes up to 15 minutes, and no verification required. On the main page of your broker there is for sures a button "Register", click and follow the instructions. An account can also be opened from other menus (for example, from the top menu, from the commercial conditions of the account, etc.).
Step 2. Familiarize yourself with the functionality of the Personal Area. It won't take long. It is at the most user friendly and intuitive. You just need to understand the instruments of the platform and understand how the trades are opened.
Step 3. Launch the trading platform. The Personal Area has the platform incorporated, but it is impossible to add templates. Hence, the "Bali" and "Parabolic Profit" strategies can only be executed on MT4.

Characteristics of an effective Forex strategy Reddit

And finally, let's see what makes a profitable Forex strategy effective. What properties should it have? Perhaps three of the most important characteristics can be pointed out.
  • The minimum number of lag indicators. The smaller they are, the greater the forecast accuracy.
  • Easy. Understanding your strategy is more important than your saturation with complex elements, formulas, and schematics.
  • Uniqueness. Any trading strategy must be "tailored" to your trading style, your character, your circumstances, and so on.
It is very important to develop your own trading strategy, but it is necessary to test a large number of already available and proven strategies. On the Forex blog you will find trading strategies available for download. Before using a live account, test your chosen strategy on the demo account on the MetaTrader trading platform.
Conclusion. To successfully trade the Forex currency market, create your own trading strategy. Learn what's new, learn out-of-the-box trading schemes, and improve your individual action plan in the market. Only in this case, the trading results will satisfy you to the fullest. Success, dear readers!
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Hibiscus Petroleum Berhad (5199.KL)


https://preview.redd.it/gp18bjnlabr41.jpg?width=768&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=6054e7f52e8d52da403016139ae43e0e799abf15
Download PDF of this article here: https://docdro.id/6eLgUPo
In light of the recent fall in oil prices due to the Saudi-Russian dispute and dampening demand for oil due to the lockdowns implemented globally, O&G stocks have taken a severe beating, falling approximately 50% from their highs at the beginning of the year. Not spared from this onslaught is Hibiscus Petroleum Berhad (Hibiscus), a listed oil and gas (O&G) exploration and production (E&P) company.
Why invest in O&G stocks in this particularly uncertain period? For one, valuations of these stocks have fallen to multi-year lows, bringing the potential ROI on these stocks to attractive levels. Oil prices are cyclical, and are bound to return to the mean given a sufficiently long time horizon. The trick is to find those companies who can survive through this downturn and emerge into “normal” profitability once oil prices rebound.
In this article, I will explore the upsides and downsides of investing in Hibiscus. I will do my best to cater this report to newcomers to the O&G industry – rather than address exclusively experts and veterans of the O&G sector. As an equity analyst, I aim to provide a view on the company primarily, and will generally refrain from providing macro views on oil or opinions about secular trends of the sector. I hope you enjoy reading it!
Stock code: 5199.KL
Stock name: Hibiscus Petroleum Berhad
Financial information and financial reports: https://www.malaysiastock.biz/Corporate-Infomation.aspx?securityCode=5199
Company website: https://www.hibiscuspetroleum.com/

Company Snapshot

Hibiscus Petroleum Berhad (5199.KL) is an oil and gas (O&G) upstream exploration and production (E&P) company located in Malaysia. As an E&P company, their business can be basically described as:
· looking for oil,
· drawing it out of the ground, and
· selling it on global oil markets.
This means Hibiscus’s profits are particularly exposed to fluctuating oil prices. With oil prices falling to sub-$30 from about $60 at the beginning of the year, Hibiscus’s stock price has also fallen by about 50% YTD – from around RM 1.00 to RM 0.45 (as of 5 April 2020).
https://preview.redd.it/3dqc4jraabr41.png?width=641&format=png&auto=webp&s=7ba0e8614c4e9d781edfc670016a874b90560684
https://preview.redd.it/lvdkrf0cabr41.png?width=356&format=png&auto=webp&s=46f250a713887b06986932fa475dc59c7c28582e
While the company is domiciled in Malaysia, its two main oil producing fields are located in both Malaysia and the UK. The Malaysian oil field is commonly referred to as the North Sabah field, while the UK oil field is commonly referred to as the Anasuria oil field. Hibiscus has licenses to other oil fields in different parts of the world, notably the Marigold/Sunflower oil fields in the UK and the VIC cluster in Australia, but its revenues and profits mainly stem from the former two oil producing fields.
Given that it’s a small player and has only two primary producing oil fields, it’s not surprising that Hibiscus sells its oil to a concentrated pool of customers, with 2 of them representing 80% of its revenues (i.e. Petronas and BP). Fortunately, both these customers are oil supermajors, and are unlikely to default on their obligations despite low oil prices.
At RM 0.45 per share, the market capitalization is RM 714.7m and it has a trailing PE ratio of about 5x. It doesn’t carry any debt, and it hasn’t paid a dividend in its listing history. The MD, Mr. Kenneth Gerard Pereira, owns about 10% of the company’s outstanding shares.

Reserves (Total recoverable oil) & Production (bbl/day)

To begin analyzing the company, it’s necessary to understand a little of the industry jargon. We’ll start with Reserves and Production.
In general, there are three types of categories for a company’s recoverable oil volumes – Reserves, Contingent Resources and Prospective Resources. Reserves are those oil fields which are “commercial”, which is defined as below:
As defined by the SPE PRMS, Reserves are “… quantities of petroleum anticipated to be commercially recoverable by application of development projects to known accumulations from a given date forward under defined conditions.” Therefore, Reserves must be discovered (by drilling, recoverable (with current technology), remaining in the subsurface (at the effective date of the evaluation) and “commercial” based on the development project proposed.)
Note that Reserves are associated with development projects. To be considered as “commercial”, there must be a firm intention to proceed with the project in a reasonable time frame (typically 5 years, and such intention must be based upon all of the following criteria:)
- A reasonable assessment of the future economics of the development project meeting defined investment and operating criteria; - A reasonable expectation that there will be a market for all or at least the expected sales quantities of production required to justify development; - Evidence that the necessary production and transportation facilities are available or can be made available; and - Evidence that legal, contractual, environmental and other social and economic concerns will allow for the actual implementation of the recovery project being evaluated.
Contingent Resources and Prospective Resources are further defined as below:
- Contingent Resources: potentially recoverable volumes associated with a development plan that targets discovered volumes but is not (yet commercial (as defined above); and) - Prospective Resources: potentially recoverable volumes associated with a development plan that targets as yet undiscovered volumes.
In the industry lingo, we generally refer to Reserves as ‘P’ and Contingent Resources as ‘C’. These ‘P’ and ‘C’ resources can be further categorized into 1P/2P/3P resources and 1C/2C/3C resources, each referring to a low/medium/high estimate of the company’s potential recoverable oil volumes:
- Low/1C/1P estimate: there should be reasonable certainty that volumes actually recovered will equal or exceed the estimate; - Best/2C/2P estimate: there should be an equal likelihood of the actual volumes of petroleum being larger or smaller than the estimate; and - High/3C/3P estimate: there is a low probability that the estimate will be exceeded.
Hence in the E&P industry, it is easy to see why most investors and analysts refer to the 2P estimate as the best estimate for a company’s actual recoverable oil volumes. This is because 2P reserves (‘2P’ referring to ‘Proved and Probable’) are a middle estimate of the recoverable oil volumes legally recognized as “commercial”.
However, there’s nothing stopping you from including 2C resources (riskier) or utilizing 1P resources (conservative) as your estimate for total recoverable oil volumes, depending on your risk appetite. In this instance, the company has provided a snapshot of its 2P and 2C resources in its analyst presentation:
https://preview.redd.it/o8qejdyc8br41.png?width=710&format=png&auto=webp&s=b3ab9be8f83badf0206adc982feda3a558d43e78
Basically, what the company is saying here is that by 2021, it will have classified as 2P reserves at least 23.7 million bbl from its Anasuria field and 20.5 million bbl from its North Sabah field – for total 2P reserves of 44.2 million bbl (we are ignoring the Australian VIC cluster as it is only estimated to reach first oil by 2022).
Furthermore, the company is stating that they have discovered (but not yet legally classified as “commercial”) a further 71 million bbl of oil from both the Anasuria and North Sabah fields, as well as the Marigold/Sunflower fields. If we include these 2C resources, the total potential recoverable oil volumes could exceed 100 million bbl.
In this report, we shall explore all valuation scenarios giving consideration to both 2P and 2C resources.
https://preview.redd.it/gk54qplf8br41.png?width=489&format=png&auto=webp&s=c905b7a6328432218b5b9dfd53cc9ef1390bd604
The company further targets a 2021 production rate of 20,000 bbl (LTM: 8,000 bbl), which includes 5,000 bbl from its Anasuria field (LTM: 2,500 bbl) and 7,000 bbl from its North Sabah field (LTM: 5,300 bbl).
This is a substantial increase in forecasted production from both existing and prospective oil fields. If it materializes, annual production rate could be as high as 7,300 mmbbl, and 2021 revenues (given FY20 USD/bbl of $60) could exceed RM 1.5 billion (FY20: RM 988 million).
However, this targeted forecast is quite a stretch from current production levels. Nevertheless, we shall consider all provided information in estimating a valuation for Hibiscus.
To understand Hibiscus’s oil production capacity and forecast its revenues and profits, we need to have a better appreciation of the performance of its two main cash-generating assets – the North Sabah field and the Anasuria field.

North Sabah oil field
https://preview.redd.it/62nssexj8br41.png?width=1003&format=png&auto=webp&s=cd78f86d51165fb9a93015e49496f7f98dad64dd
Hibiscus owns a 50% interest in the North Sabah field together with its partner Petronas, and has production rights over the field up to year 2040. The asset contains 4 oil fields, namely the St Joseph field, South Furious field, SF 30 field and Barton field.
For the sake of brevity, we shall not delve deep into the operational aspects of the fields or the contractual nature of its production sharing contract (PSC). We’ll just focus on the factors which relate to its financial performance. These are:
· Average uptime
· Total oil sold
· Average realized oil price
· Average OPEX per bbl
With regards to average uptime, we can see that the company maintains relative high facility availability, exceeding 90% uptime in all quarters of the LTM with exception of Jul-Sep 2019. The dip in average uptime was due to production enhancement projects and maintenance activities undertaken to improve the production capacity of the St Joseph and SF30 oil fields.
Hence, we can conclude that management has a good handle on operational performance. It also implies that there is little room for further improvement in production resulting from increased uptime.
As North Sabah is under a production sharing contract (PSC), there is a distinction between gross oil production and net oil production. The former relates to total oil drawn out of the ground, whereas the latter refers to Hibiscus’s share of oil production after taxes, royalties and expenses are accounted for. In this case, we want to pay attention to net oil production, not gross.
We can arrive at Hibiscus’s total oil sold for the last twelve months (LTM) by adding up the total oil sold for each of the last 4 quarters. Summing up the figures yields total oil sold for the LTM of approximately 2,075,305 bbl.
Then, we can arrive at an average realized oil price over the LTM by averaging the average realized oil price for the last 4 quarters, giving us an average realized oil price over the LTM of USD 68.57/bbl. We can do the same for average OPEX per bbl, giving us an average OPEX per bbl over the LTM of USD 13.23/bbl.
Thus, we can sum up the above financial performance of the North Sabah field with the following figures:
· Total oil sold: 2,075,305 bbl
· Average realized oil price: USD 68.57/bbl
· Average OPEX per bbl: USD 13.23/bbl

Anasuria oil field
https://preview.redd.it/586u4kfo8br41.png?width=1038&format=png&auto=webp&s=7580fc7f7df7e948754d025745a5cf47d4393c0f
Doing the same exercise as above for the Anasuria field, we arrive at the following financial performance for the Anasuria field:
· Total oil sold: 1,073,304 bbl
· Average realized oil price: USD 63.57/bbl
· Average OPEX per bbl: USD 23.22/bbl
As gas production is relatively immaterial, and to be conservative, we shall only consider the crude oil production from the Anasuria field in forecasting revenues.

Valuation (Method 1)

Putting the figures from both oil fields together, we get the following data:
https://preview.redd.it/7y6064dq8br41.png?width=700&format=png&auto=webp&s=2a4120563a011cf61fc6090e1cd5932602599dc2
Given that we have determined LTM EBITDA of RM 632m, the next step would be to subtract ITDA (interest, tax, depreciation & amortization) from it to obtain estimated LTM Net Profit. Using FY2020’s ITDA of approximately RM 318m as a guideline, we arrive at an estimated LTM Net Profit of RM 314m (FY20: 230m). Given the current market capitalization of RM 714.7m, this implies a trailing LTM PE of 2.3x.
Performing a sensitivity analysis given different oil prices, we arrive at the following net profit table for the company under different oil price scenarios, assuming oil production rate and ITDA remain constant:
https://preview.redd.it/xixge5sr8br41.png?width=433&format=png&auto=webp&s=288a00f6e5088d01936f0217ae7798d2cfcf11f2
From the above exercise, it becomes apparent that Hibiscus has a breakeven oil price of about USD 41.8863/bbl, and has a lot of operating leverage given the exponential rate of increase in its Net Profit with each consequent increase in oil prices.
Considering that the oil production rate (EBITDA) is likely to increase faster than ITDA’s proportion to revenues (fixed costs), at an implied PE of 4.33x, it seems likely that an investment in Hibiscus will be profitable over the next 10 years (with the assumption that oil prices will revert to the mean in the long-term).

Valuation (Method 2)

Of course, there are a lot of assumptions behind the above method of valuation. Hence, it would be prudent to perform multiple methods of valuation and compare the figures to one another.
As opposed to the profit/loss assessment in Valuation (Method 1), another way of performing a valuation would be to estimate its balance sheet value, i.e. total revenues from 2P Reserves, and assign a reasonable margin to it.
https://preview.redd.it/o2eiss6u8br41.png?width=710&format=png&auto=webp&s=03960cce698d9cedb076f3d5f571b3c59d908fa8
From the above, we understand that Hibiscus’s 2P reserves from the North Sabah and Anasuria fields alone are approximately 44.2 mmbbl (we ignore contribution from Australia’s VIC cluster as it hasn’t been developed yet).
Doing a similar sensitivity analysis of different oil prices as above, we arrive at the following estimated total revenues and accumulated net profit:
https://preview.redd.it/h8hubrmw8br41.png?width=450&format=png&auto=webp&s=6d23f0f9c3dafda89e758b815072ba335467f33e
Let’s assume that the above average of RM 9.68 billion in total realizable revenues from current 2P reserves holds true. If we assign a conservative Net Profit margin of 15% (FY20: 23%; past 5 years average: 16%), we arrive at estimated accumulated Net Profit from 2P Reserves of RM 1.452 billion. Given the current market capitalization of RM 714 million, we might be able to say that the equity is worth about twice the current share price.
However, it is understandable that some readers might feel that the figures used in the above estimate (e.g. net profit margin of 15%) were randomly plucked from the sky. So how do we reconcile them with figures from the financial statements? Fortunately, there appears to be a way to do just that.
Intangible Assets
I refer you to a figure in the financial statements which provides a shortcut to the valuation of 2P Reserves. This is the carrying value of Intangible Assets on the Balance Sheet.
As of 2QFY21, that amount was RM 1,468,860,000 (i.e. RM 1.468 billion).
https://preview.redd.it/hse8ttb09br41.png?width=881&format=png&auto=webp&s=82e48b5961c905fe9273cb6346368de60202ebec
Quite coincidentally, one might observe that this figure is dangerously close to the estimated accumulated Net Profit from 2P Reserves of RM 1.452 billion we calculated earlier. But why would this amount matter at all?
To answer that, I refer you to the notes of the Annual Report FY20 (AR20). On page 148 of the AR20, we find the following two paragraphs:
E&E assets comprise of rights and concession and conventional studies. Following the acquisition of a concession right to explore a licensed area, the costs incurred such as geological and geophysical surveys, drilling, commercial appraisal costs and other directly attributable costs of exploration and appraisal including technical and administrative costs, are capitalised as conventional studies, presented as intangible assets.
E&E assets are assessed for impairment when facts and circumstances suggest that the carrying amount of an E&E asset may exceed its recoverable amount. The Group will allocate E&E assets to cash generating unit (“CGU”s or groups of CGUs for the purpose of assessing such assets for impairment. Each CGU or group of units to which an E&E asset is allocated will not be larger than an operating segment as disclosed in Note 39 to the financial statements.)
Hence, we can determine that firstly, the intangible asset value represents capitalized costs of acquisition of the oil fields, including technical exploration costs and costs of acquiring the relevant licenses. Secondly, an impairment review will be carried out when “the carrying amount of an E&E asset may exceed its recoverable amount”, with E&E assets being allocated to “cash generating units” (CGU) for the purposes of assessment.
On page 169 of the AR20, we find the following:
Carrying amounts of the Group’s intangible assets, oil and gas assets and FPSO are reviewed for possible impairment annually including any indicators of impairment. For the purpose of assessing impairment, assets are grouped at the lowest level CGUs for which there is a separately identifiable cash flow available. These CGUs are based on operating areas, represented by the 2011 North Sabah EOR PSC (“North Sabah”, the Anasuria Cluster, the Marigold and Sunflower fields, the VIC/P57 exploration permit (“VIC/P57”) and the VIC/L31 production license (“VIC/L31”).)
So apparently, the CGUs that have been assigned refer to the respective oil producing fields, two of which include the North Sabah field and the Anasuria field. In order to perform the impairment review, estimates of future cash flow will be made by management to assess the “recoverable amount” (as described above), subject to assumptions and an appropriate discount rate.
Hence, what we can gather up to now is that management will estimate future recoverable cash flows from a CGU (i.e. the North Sabah and Anasuria oil fields), compare that to their carrying value, and perform an impairment if their future recoverable cash flows are less than their carrying value. In other words, if estimated accumulated profits from the North Sabah and Anasuria oil fields are less than their carrying value, an impairment is required.
So where do we find the carrying values for the North Sabah and Anasuria oil fields? Further down on page 184 in the AR20, we see the following:
Included in rights and concession are the carrying amounts of producing field licenses in the Anasuria Cluster amounting to RM668,211,518 (2018: RM687,664,530, producing field licenses in North Sabah amounting to RM471,031,008 (2018: RM414,333,116))
Hence, we can determine that the carrying values for the North Sabah and Anasuria oil fields are RM 471m and RM 668m respectively. But where do we find the future recoverable cash flows of the fields as estimated by management, and what are the assumptions used in that calculation?
Fortunately, we find just that on page 185:
17 INTANGIBLE ASSETS (CONTINUED)
(a Anasuria Cluster)
The Directors have concluded that there is no impairment indicator for Anasuria Cluster during the current financial year. In the previous financial year, due to uncertainties in crude oil prices, the Group has assessed the recoverable amount of the intangible assets, oil and gas assets and FPSO relating to the Anasuria Cluster. The recoverable amount is determined using the FVLCTS model based on discounted cash flows (“DCF” derived from the expected cash in/outflow pattern over the production lives.)
The key assumptions used to determine the recoverable amount for the Anasuria Cluster were as follows:
(i Discount rate of 10%;)
(ii Future cost inflation factor of 2% per annum;)
(iii Oil price forecast based on the oil price forward curve from independent parties; and,)
(iv Oil production profile based on the assessment by independent oil and gas reserve experts.)
Based on the assessments performed, the Directors concluded that the recoverable amount calculated based on the valuation model is higher than the carrying amount.
(b North Sabah)
The acquisition of the North Sabah assets was completed in the previous financial year. Details of the acquisition are as disclosed in Note 15 to the financial statements.
The Directors have concluded that there is no impairment indicator for North Sabah during the current financial year.
Here, we can see that the recoverable amount of the Anasuria field was estimated based on a DCF of expected future cash flows over the production life of the asset. The key assumptions used by management all seem appropriate, including a discount rate of 10% and oil price and oil production estimates based on independent assessment. From there, management concludes that the recoverable amount of the Anasuria field is higher than its carrying amount (i.e. no impairment required). Likewise, for the North Sabah field.
How do we interpret this? Basically, what management is saying is that given a 10% discount rate and independent oil price and oil production estimates, the accumulated profits (i.e. recoverable amount) from both the North Sabah and the Anasuria fields exceed their carrying amounts of RM 471m and RM 668m respectively.
In other words, according to management’s own estimates, the carrying value of the Intangible Assets of RM 1.468 billion approximates the accumulated Net Profit recoverable from 2P reserves.
To conclude Valuation (Method 2), we arrive at the following:

Our estimates Management estimates
Accumulated Net Profit from 2P Reserves RM 1.452 billion RM 1.468 billion

Financials

By now, we have established the basic economics of Hibiscus’s business, including its revenues (i.e. oil production and oil price scenarios), costs (OPEX, ITDA), profitability (breakeven, future earnings potential) and balance sheet value (2P reserves, valuation). Moving on, we want to gain a deeper understanding of the 3 statements to anticipate any blind spots and risks. We’ll refer to the financial statements of both the FY20 annual report and the 2Q21 quarterly report in this analysis.
For the sake of brevity, I’ll only point out those line items which need extra attention, and skip over the rest. Feel free to go through the financial statements on your own to gain a better familiarity of the business.
https://preview.redd.it/h689bss79br41.png?width=810&format=png&auto=webp&s=ed47fce6a5c3815dd3d4f819e31f1ce39ccf4a0b
Income Statement
First, we’ll start with the Income Statement on page 135 of the AR20. Revenues are straightforward, as we’ve discussed above. Cost of Sales and Administrative Expenses fall under the jurisdiction of OPEX, which we’ve also seen earlier. Other Expenses are mostly made up of Depreciation & Amortization of RM 115m.
Finance Costs are where things start to get tricky. Why does a company which carries no debt have such huge amounts of finance costs? The reason can be found in Note 8, where it is revealed that the bulk of finance costs relate to the unwinding of discount of provision for decommissioning costs of RM 25m (Note 32).
https://preview.redd.it/4omjptbe9br41.png?width=1019&format=png&auto=webp&s=eaabfc824134063100afa62edfd36a34a680fb60
This actually refers to the expected future costs of restoring the Anasuria and North Sabah fields to their original condition once the oil reserves have been depleted. Accounting standards require the company to provide for these decommissioning costs as they are estimable and probable. The way the decommissioning costs are accounted for is the same as an amortized loan, where the initial carrying value is recognized as a liability and the discount rate applied is reversed each year as an expense on the Income Statement. However, these expenses are largely non-cash in nature and do not necessitate a cash outflow every year (FY20: RM 69m).
Unwinding of discount on non-current other payables of RM 12m relate to contractual payments to the North Sabah sellers. We will discuss it later.
Taxation is another tricky subject, and is even more significant than Finance Costs at RM 161m. In gist, Hibiscus is subject to the 38% PITA (Petroleum Income Tax Act) under Malaysian jurisdiction, and the 30% Petroleum tax + 10% Supplementary tax under UK jurisdiction. Of the RM 161m, RM 41m of it relates to deferred tax which originates from the difference between tax treatment and accounting treatment on capitalized assets (accelerated depreciation vs straight-line depreciation). Nonetheless, what you should take away from this is that the tax expense is a tangible expense and material to breakeven analysis.
Fortunately, tax is a variable expense, and should not materially impact the cash flow of Hibiscus in today’s low oil price environment.
Note: Cash outflows for Tax Paid in FY20 was RM 97m, substantially below the RM 161m tax expense.
https://preview.redd.it/1xrnwzm89br41.png?width=732&format=png&auto=webp&s=c078bc3e18d9c79d9a6fbe1187803612753f69d8
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet of Hibiscus is unexciting; I’ll just bring your attention to those line items which need additional scrutiny. I’ll use the figures in the latest 2Q21 quarterly report (2Q21) and refer to the notes in AR20 for clarity.
We’ve already discussed Intangible Assets in the section above, so I won’t dwell on it again.
Moving on, the company has Equipment of RM 582m, largely relating to O&G assets (e.g. the Anasuria FPSO vessel and CAPEX incurred on production enhancement projects). Restricted cash and bank balances represent contractual obligations for decommissioning costs of the Anasuria Cluster, and are inaccessible for use in operations.
Inventories are relatively low, despite Hibiscus being an E&P company, so forex fluctuations on carrying value of inventories are relatively immaterial. Trade receivables largely relate to entitlements from Petronas and BP (both oil supermajors), and are hence quite safe from impairment. Other receivables, deposits and prepayments are significant as they relate to security deposits placed with sellers of the oil fields acquired; these should be ignored for cash flow purposes.
Note: Total cash and bank balances do not include approximately RM 105 m proceeds from the North Sabah December 2019 offtake (which was received in January 2020)
Cash and bank balances of RM 90m do not include RM 105m of proceeds from offtake received in 3Q21 (Jan 2020). Hence, the actual cash and bank balances as of 2Q21 approximate RM 200m.
Liabilities are a little more interesting. First, I’ll draw your attention to the significant Deferred tax liabilities of RM 457m. These largely relate to the amortization of CAPEX (i.e. Equipment and capitalized E&E expenses), which is given an accelerated depreciation treatment for tax purposes.
The way this works is that the government gives Hibiscus a favorable tax treatment on capital expenditures incurred via an accelerated depreciation schedule, so that the taxable income is less than usual. However, this leads to the taxable depreciation being utilized quicker than accounting depreciation, hence the tax payable merely deferred to a later period – when the tax depreciation runs out but accounting depreciation remains. Given the capital intensive nature of the business, it is understandable why Deferred tax liabilities are so large.
We’ve discussed Provision for decommissioning costs under the Finance Costs section earlier. They are also quite significant at RM 266m.
Notably, the Other Payables and Accruals are a hefty RM 431m. What do they relate to? Basically, they are contractual obligations to the sellers of the oil fields which are only payable upon oil prices reaching certain thresholds. Hence, while they are current in nature, they will only become payable when oil prices recover to previous highs, and are hence not an immediate cash outflow concern given today’s low oil prices.
Cash Flow Statement
There is nothing in the cash flow statement which warrants concern.
Notably, the company generated OCF of approximately RM 500m in FY20 and RM 116m in 2Q21. It further incurred RM 330m and RM 234m of CAPEX in FY20 and 2Q21 respectively, largely owing to production enhancement projects to increase the production rate of the Anasuria and North Sabah fields, which according to management estimates are accretive to ROI.
Tax paid was RM 97m in FY20 and RM 61m in 2Q21 (tax expense: RM 161m and RM 62m respectively).

Risks

There are a few obvious and not-so-obvious risks that one should be aware of before investing in Hibiscus. We shall not consider operational risks (e.g. uptime, OPEX) as they are outside the jurisdiction of the equity analyst. Instead, we shall focus on the financial and strategic risks largely outside the control of management. The main ones are:
· Oil prices remaining subdued for long periods of time
· Fluctuation of exchange rates
· Customer concentration risk
· 2P Reserves being less than estimated
· Significant current and non-current liabilities
· Potential issuance of equity
Oil prices remaining subdued
Of topmost concern in the minds of most analysts is whether Hibiscus has the wherewithal to sustain itself through this period of low oil prices (sub-$30). A quick and dirty estimate of annual cash outflow (i.e. burn rate) assuming a $20 oil world and historical production rates is between RM 50m-70m per year, which considering the RM 200m cash balance implies about 3-4 years of sustainability before the company runs out of cash and has to rely on external assistance for financing.
Table 1: Hibiscus EBITDA at different oil price and exchange rates
https://preview.redd.it/gxnekd6h9br41.png?width=670&format=png&auto=webp&s=edbfb9621a43480d11e3b49de79f61a6337b3d51
The above table shows different EBITDA scenarios (RM ‘m) given different oil prices (left column) and USD:MYR exchange rates (top row). Currently, oil prices are $27 and USD:MYR is 1:4.36.
Given conservative assumptions of average OPEX/bbl of $20 (current: $15), we can safely say that the company will be loss-making as long as oil remains at $20 or below (red). However, we can see that once oil prices hit $25, the company can tank the lower-end estimate of the annual burn rate of RM 50m (orange), while at RM $27 it can sufficiently muddle through the higher-end estimate of the annual burn rate of RM 70m (green).
Hence, we can assume that as long as the average oil price over the next 3-4 years remains above $25, Hibiscus should come out of this fine without the need for any external financing.
Customer Concentration Risk
With regards to customer concentration risk, there is not much the analyst or investor can do except to accept the risk. Fortunately, 80% of revenues can be attributed to two oil supermajors (Petronas and BP), hence the risk of default on contractual obligations and trade receivables seems to be quite diminished.
2P Reserves being less than estimated
2P Reserves being less than estimated is another risk that one should keep in mind. Fortunately, the current market cap is merely RM 714m – at half of estimated recoverable amounts of RM 1.468 billion – so there’s a decent margin of safety. In addition, there are other mitigating factors which shall be discussed in the next section (‘Opportunities’).
Significant non-current and current liabilities
The significant non-current and current liabilities have been addressed in the previous section. It has been determined that they pose no threat to immediate cash flow due to them being long-term in nature (e.g. decommissioning costs, deferred tax, etc). Hence, for the purpose of assessing going concern, their amounts should not be a cause for concern.
Potential issuance of equity
Finally, we come to the possibility of external financing being required in this low oil price environment. While the company should last 3-4 years on existing cash reserves, there is always the risk of other black swan events materializing (e.g. coronavirus) or simply oil prices remaining muted for longer than 4 years.
Furthermore, management has hinted that they wish to acquire new oil assets at presently depressed prices to increase daily production rate to a targeted 20,000 bbl by end-2021. They have room to acquire debt, but they may also wish to issue equity for this purpose. Hence, the possibility of dilution to existing shareholders cannot be entirely ruled out.
However, given management’s historical track record of prioritizing ROI and optimal capital allocation, and in consideration of the fact that the MD owns 10% of outstanding shares, there is some assurance that any potential acquisitions will be accretive to EPS and therefore valuations.

Opportunities

As with the existence of risk, the presence of material opportunities also looms over the company. Some of them are discussed below:
· Increased Daily Oil Production Rate
· Inclusion of 2C Resources
· Future oil prices exceeding $50 and effects from coronavirus dissipating
Increased Daily Oil Production Rate
The first and most obvious opportunity is the potential for increased production rate. We’ve seen in the last quarter (2Q21) that the North Sabah field increased its daily production rate by approximately 20% as a result of production enhancement projects (infill drilling), lowering OPEX/bbl as a result. To vastly oversimplify, infill drilling is the process of maximizing well density by drilling in the spaces between existing wells to improve oil production.
The same improvements are being undertaken at the Anasuria field via infill drilling, subsea debottlenecking, water injection and sidetracking of existing wells. Without boring you with industry jargon, this basically means future production rate is likely to improve going forward.
By how much can the oil production rate be improved by? Management estimates in their analyst presentation that enhancements in the Anasuria field will be able to yield 5,000 bbl/day by 2021 (current: 2,500 bbl/day).
Similarly, improvements in the North Sabah field is expected to yield 7,000 bbl/day by 2021 (current: 5,300 bbl/day).
This implies a total 2021 expected daily production rate from the two fields alone of 12,000 bbl/day (current: 8,000 bbl/day). That’s a 50% increase in yields which we haven’t factored into our valuation yet.
Furthermore, we haven’t considered any production from existing 2C resources (e.g. Marigold/Sunflower) or any potential acquisitions which may occur in the future. By management estimates, this can potentially increase production by another 8,000 bbl/day, bringing total production to 20,000 bbl/day.
While this seems like a stretch of the imagination, it pays to keep them in mind when forecasting future revenues and valuations.
Just to play around with the numbers, I’ve come up with a sensitivity analysis of possible annual EBITDA at different oil prices and daily oil production rates:
Table 2: Hibiscus EBITDA at different oil price and daily oil production rates
https://preview.redd.it/jnpfhr5n9br41.png?width=814&format=png&auto=webp&s=bbe4b512bc17f576d87529651140cc74cde3d159
The left column represents different oil prices while the top row represents different daily oil production rates.
The green column represents EBITDA at current daily production rate of 8,000 bbl/day; the orange column represents EBITDA at targeted daily production rate of 12,000 bbl/day; while the purple column represents EBITDA at maximum daily production rate of 20,000 bbl/day.
Even conservatively assuming increased estimated annual ITDA of RM 500m (FY20: RM 318m), and long-term average oil prices of $50 (FY20: $60), the estimated Net Profit and P/E ratio is potentially lucrative at daily oil production rates of 12,000 bbl/day and above.
2C Resources
Since we’re on the topic of improved daily oil production rate, it bears to pay in mind the relatively enormous potential from Hibiscus’s 2C Resources. North Sabah’s 2C Resources alone exceed 30 mmbbl; while those from the yet undiagnosed Marigold/Sunflower fields also reach 30 mmbbl. Altogether, 2C Resources exceed 70 mmbbl, which dwarfs the 44 mmbbl of 2P Reserves we have considered up to this point in our valuation estimates.
To refresh your memory, 2C Resources represents oil volumes which have been discovered but are not yet classified as “commercial”. This means that there is reasonable certainty of the oil being recoverable, as opposed to simply being in the very early stages of exploration. So, to be conservative, we will imagine that only 50% of 2C Resources are eligible for reclassification to 2P reserves, i.e. 35 mmbbl of oil.
https://preview.redd.it/mto11iz7abr41.png?width=375&format=png&auto=webp&s=e9028ab0816b3d3e25067447f2c70acd3ebfc41a
This additional 35 mmbbl of oil represents an 80% increase to existing 2P reserves. Assuming the daily oil production rate increases similarly by 80%, we will arrive at 14,400 bbl/day of oil production. According to Table 2 above, this would yield an EBITDA of roughly RM 630m assuming $50 oil.
Comparing that estimated EBITDA to FY20’s actual EBITDA:
FY20 FY21 (incl. 2C) Difference
Daily oil production (bbl/day) 8,626 14,400 +66%
Average oil price (USD/bbl) $68.57 $50 -27%
Average OPEX/bbl (USD) $16.64 $20 +20%
EBITDA (RM ‘m) 632 630 -
Hence, even conservatively assuming lower oil prices and higher OPEX/bbl (which should decrease in the presence of higher oil volumes) than last year, we get approximately the same EBITDA as FY20.
For the sake of completeness, let’s assume that Hibiscus issues twice the no. of existing shares over the next 10 years, effectively diluting shareholders by 50%. Even without accounting for the possibility of the acquisition of new oil fields, at the current market capitalization of RM 714m, the prospective P/E would be about 10x. Not too shabby.
Future oil prices exceeding $50 and effects from coronavirus dissipating
Hibiscus shares have recently been hit by a one-two punch from oil prices cratering from $60 to $30, as a result of both the Saudi-Russian dispute and depressed demand for oil due to coronavirus. This has massively increased supply and at the same time hugely depressed demand for oil (due to the globally coordinated lockdowns being implemented).
Given a long enough timeframe, I fully expect OPEC+ to come to an agreement and the economic effects from the coronavirus to dissipate, allowing oil prices to rebound. As we equity investors are aware, oil prices are cyclical and are bound to recover over the next 10 years.
When it does, valuations of O&G stocks (including Hibiscus’s) are likely to improve as investors overshoot expectations and begin to forecast higher oil prices into perpetuity, as they always tend to do in good times. When that time arrives, Hibiscus’s valuations are likely to become overoptimistic as all O&G stocks tend to do during oil upcycles, resulting in valuations far exceeding reasonable estimates of future earnings. If you can hold the shares up until then, it’s likely you will make much more on your investment than what we’ve been estimating.

Conclusion

Wrapping up what we’ve discussed so far, we can conclude that Hibiscus’s market capitalization of RM 714m far undershoots reasonable estimates of fair value even under conservative assumptions of recoverable oil volumes and long-term average oil prices. As a value investor, I hesitate to assign a target share price, but it’s safe to say that this stock is worth at least RM 1.00 (current: RM 0.45). Risk is relatively contained and the upside far exceeds the downside. While I have no opinion on the short-term trajectory of oil prices, I can safely recommend this stock as a long-term Buy based on fundamental research.
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Looking back 18 months.

I was going through old emails today and came across this one I sent out to family on January 4, 2018. It was a reflection on the 2017 crypto bull market and where I saw it heading, as well as some general advice on crypto, investment, and being safe about how you handle yourself in cryptoland.
I feel that we are on the cusp of a new bull market right now, so I thought that I would put this out for at least a few people to see *before* the next bull run, not after. While the details have changed, I don't see a thing in this email that I fundamentally wouldn't say again, although I'd also probably insist that people get a Yubikey and use that for all 2FA where it is supported.
Happy reading, and sorry for some of the formatting weirdness -- I cleaned it up pretty well from the original email formatting, but I love lists and indents and Reddit has limitations... :-/
Also, don't laught at my token picks from January 2018! It was a long time ago and (luckliy) I took my own advice about moving a bunch into USD shortly after I sent this. I didn't hit the top, and I came back in too early in the summer of 2018, but I got lucky in many respects.
----------------------------------------------------------------------- Jan-4, 2018
Hey all!
I woke up this morning to ETH at a solid $1000 and decided to put some thoughts together on what I think crypto has done and what I think it will do. *******, if you could share this to your kids I’d appreciate it -- I don’t have e-mail addresses, and it’s a bit unwieldy for FB Messenger… Hopefully they’ll at least find it thought-provoking. If not, they can use it as further evidence that I’m a nutjob. 😉
Some history before I head into the future.
I first mined some BTC in 2011 or 2012 (Can’t remember exactly, but it was around the Christmas holidays when I started because I had time off from work to get it set up and running.) I kept it up through the start of summer in 2012, but stopped because it made my PC run hot and as it was no longer winter, ********** didn’t appreciate the sound of the fans blowing that hot air into the room any more. I’ve always said that the first BTC I mined was at $1, but looking back at it now, that’s not true – It was around $2. Here’s a link to BTC price history.
In the summer of 2013 I got a new PC and moved my programs and files over before scrapping the old one. I hadn’t touched my BTC mining folder for a year then, and I didn’t even think about salvaging those wallet files. They are now gone forever, including the 9-10BTC that were in them. While I can intellectually justify the loss, it was sloppy and underlines a key thing about cryptocurrency that I believe will limit its widespread adoption by the general public until it is addressed and solved: In cryptoland, you are your own bank, and if you lose your password or account number, there is no person or organization that can help you reset it so that you can get access back. Your money is gone forever.
On April 12, 2014 I bought my first BTC through Coinbase. BTC had spiked to $1000 and been in the news, at least in Japan. This made me remember my old wallet and freak out for a couple of months trying to find it and reclaim the coins. I then FOMO’d (Fear Of Missing Out”) and bought $100 worth of BTC. I was actually very lucky in my timing and bought at around $430. Even so, except for a brief 50% swing up almost immediately afterwards that made me check prices 5 times a day, BTC fell below my purchase price by the end of September and I didn’t get back to even until the end of 2015.
In May 2015 I bought my first ETH at around $1. I sent some guy on bitcointalk ~$100 worth of BTC and he sent me 100 ETH – all on trust because the amounts were small and this was a small group of people. BTC was down in the $250 range at that point, so I had lost 30-40% of my initial investment. This was of the $100 invested, so not that much in real terms, but huge in percentages. It also meant that I had to buy another $100 of BTC on Coinbase to send to this guy. A few months after I purchased my ETH, BTC had doubled and ETH had gone down to $0.50, halving the value of my ETH holdings. I was even on the first BTC purchase finally, but was now down 50% on the ETH I had bought.
The good news was that this made me start to look at things more seriously. Where I had skimmed white papers and gotten a superficial understanding of the technology before FOMO’ing, I started to act as an investor, not a speculator. Let me define how I see those two different types of activity:
So what has been my experience as an investor? After sitting out the rest of 2015 because I needed to understand the market better, I bought into ETH quite heavily, with my initial big purchases being in March-April of 2016. Those purchases were in the $11-$14 range. ETH, of course, dropped immediately to under $10, then came back and bounced around my purchase range for a while until December of 2016, when I purchased a lot more at around $8.
I also purchased my first ICO in August of 2016, HEAT. I bought 25ETH worth. Those tokens are now worth about half of their ICO price, so about 12.5ETH or $12500 instead of the $25000 they would be worth if I had just kept ETH. There are some other things with HEAT that mean I’ve done quite a bit better than those numbers would suggest, but the fact is that the single best thing I could have done is to hold ETH and not spend the effort/time/cost of working with HEAT. That holds true for about every top-25 token on the market when compared to ETH. It certainly holds true for the many, many tokens I tried to trade in Q1-Q2 of 2017. In almost every single case I would have done better and slept better had I just held ETH instead of trying to be smarter than Mr. Market.
But, I made money on all of them except one because the crypto market went up more in USD terms than any individual coin went down in ETH or BTC terms. This underlines something that I read somewhere and that I take to heart: A rising market makes everyone seem like a genius. A monkey throwing darts at a list of the top 100 cryptocurrencies last year would have doubled his money. Here’s a chart from September that shows 2017 year-to-date returns for the top 10 cryptocurrencies, and all of them went up a *lot* more between then and December. A monkey throwing darts at this list there would have quintupled his money.
When evaluating performance, then, you have to beat the monkey, and preferably you should try to beat a Wall Street monkey. I couldn’t, so I stopped trying around July 2017. My benchmark was the BLX, a DAA (Digital Asset Array – think fund like a Fidelity fund) created by ICONOMI. I wasn’t even close to beating the BLX returns, so I did several things.
  1. I went from holding about 25 different tokens to holding 10 now. More on that in a bit.
  2. I used those funds to buy ETH and BLX. ETH has done crazy-good since then and BLX has beaten BTC handily, although it hasn’t done as well as ETH.
  3. I used some of those funds to set up an arbitrage operation.
The arbitrage operation is why I kept the 11 tokens that I have now. All but a couple are used in an ETH/token pair for arbitrage, and each one of them except for one special case is part of BLX. Why did I do that? I did that because ICONOMI did a better job of picking long-term holds than I did, and in arbitrage the only speculative thing you must do is pick the pairs to trade. My pairs are (No particular order):
I also hold PLU, PLBT, and ART. These two are multi-year holds for me. I have not purchased BTC once since my initial $200, except for a few cases where BTC was the only way to go to/from an altcoin that didn’t trade against ETH yet. Right now I hold about the same 0.3BTC that I held after my first $100 purchase, so I don’t really count it.
Looking forward to this year, I am positioning myself as follows:
Looking at my notes, I have two other things that I wanted to work into this email that I didn’t get to, so here they are:
  1. Just like with free apps and other software, if you are getting something of value and you didn’t pay anything for it, you need to ask why this is. With apps, the phrase is “If you didn’t pay for the product, you are the product”, and this works for things such as pump groups, tips, and even technical analysis. Here’s how I see it.
    1. People don’t give tips on stocks or crypto that they don’t already own that stock or token. Why would they, since if they convince anyone to buy it, the price only goes up as a result, making it more expensive for them to buy in? Sure, you will have friends and family that may do this, but people in a crypto club, your local cryptocurrency meetup, or online are generally not your friends. They are there to make money, and if they can get you to help them make money, they will do it. Pump groups are the worst of these, and no matter how enticing it may look, stay as far away as possible from these scams. I even go so far as to report them when I see them advertise on FB or Twitter, because they are violating the terms of use.
    2. Technical analysis (TA) is something that has been argued about for longer than I’ve been alive, but I think that it falls into the same boat. In short, TA argues that there are patterns in trading that can be read and acted upon to signal when one must buy or sell. It has been used forever in the stock and foreign exchange markets, and people use it in crypto as well. Let’s break down these assumptions a bit.
i. First, if crypto were like the stock or forex markets we’d all be happy with 5-7% gains per year rather than easily seeing that in a day. For TA to work the same way in crypto as it does in stocks and foreign exchange, the signals would have to be *much* stronger and faster-reacting than they work in the traditional market, but people use them in exactly the same way.
ii. Another area where crypto is very different than the stock and forex markets centers around market efficiency theory. This theory says that markets are efficient and that the price reflects all the available information at any given time. This is why gold in New York is similar in price to gold in London or Shanghai, and why arbitrage margins are easily <0.1% in those markets compared to cryptoland where I can easily get 10x that. Crypto simply has too much speculation and not enough professional traders in it yet to operate as an efficient market. That fundamentally changes the way that the market behaves and should make any TA patterns from traditional markets irrelevant in crypto.
iii. There are services, both free and paid that claim to put out signals based on TA for when one should buy and sell. If you think for even a second that they are not front-running (Placing orders ahead of yours to profit.) you and the other people using the service, you’re naïve.
iv. Likewise, if you don’t think that there are people that have but together computerized systems to get ahead of people doing manual TA, you’re naïve. The guys that I have programming my arbitrage bots have offered to build me a TA bot and set up a service to sell signals once our position is taken. I said no, but I am sure that they will do it themselves or sell that to someone else. Basically they look at TA as a tip machine where when a certain pattern is seen, people act on that “tip”. They use software to see that “tip” faster and take a position on it so that when slower participants come in they either have to sell lower or buy higher than the TA bot did. Remember, if you are getting a tip for free, you’re the product. In TA I see a system when people are all acting on free preset “tips” and getting played by the more sophisticated market participants. Again, you have to beat that Wall Street monkey.
  1. If you still don’t agree that TA is bogus, think about it this way: If TA was real, Wall Street would have figured it out decades ago and we would have TA funds that would be beating the market. We don’t.
  2. If you still don’t agree that TA is bogus and that its real and well, proven, then you must think that all smart traders use them. Now follow that logic forward and think about what would happen if every smart trader pushing big money followed TA. The signals would only last for a split second and would then be overwhelmed by people acting on them, making them impossible to leverage. This is essentially what the efficient market theory postulates for all information, including TA.
OK, the one last item. Read this weekly newsletter – You can sign up at the bottom. It is free, so they’re selling something, right? 😉 From what I can tell, though, Evan is a straight-up guy who posts links and almost zero editorial comments.
Happy 2018.
submitted by uetani to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

[educational] Technical analysis, patterns, and charts analysis for the day trader

[educational] Technical analysis, patterns, and charts analysis for the day trader
Chart patterns form a key part of day trading. Candlestick and other charts produce frequent signals that cut through price action “noise”.
The best patterns will be those that can form the backbone of a profitable day trading strategy, whether trading stocks, cryptocurrency of forex pairs.
Every day you have to choose between hundreds of trading opportunities. This is a result of a wide range of factors influencing the market. Day trading patterns enable you to decipher the multitude of options and motivations – from hope of gain and fear of loss, to short-covering, stop-loss triggers, hedging, tax consequences and plenty more.
Candlestick patterns help by painting a clear picture, and flagging up trading signals and signs of future price movements. Whilst it’s said you’ll need to use technical analysis to succeed day trading with candlestick and other patterns, it’s important to note utilizing them to your advantage is more of an art form than a rigid science.
You have to learn the power of chart patterns and the theory that governs them in order to identify the best patterns to supplement your trading style and strategies.

Use In Day Trading

Used correctly trading patterns can add a powerful tool to your arsenal. This is because history has a habit of repeating itself and the financial markets are no exception. This repetition can help you identify opportunities and anticipate potential pitfalls.
RSI, volume, plus support and resistance levels all aide your technical analysis when you’re trading. But crypto chart patterns play a crucial role in identifying breakouts and trend reversals. Mastering the art of reading these patterns will help you make smarter trades and bolster your profits, as highlighted in the highly regarded, ‘stock patterns for day trading’, by Barry Rudd.

Breakouts & Reversals

In the patterns and charts below you’ll see two recurring themes, breakouts and reversals.
  • Breakout – A breakout is simply when the price clears a specified critical level on your chart. This level could by any number of things, from a Fibonacci level, to support, resistance or trend lines.
  • Reversal – A reversal is simply a change in direction of a price trend. That change could be either positive or negative against the prevailing trend. You may also hear it called a ‘rally’, ‘correction’, or ‘trend reversal’.

Candlestick Charts

Candlestick charts are a technical tool at your disposal. They consolidate data within given time frames into single bars. Not only are the patterns relatively straightforward to interpret, but trading with candle patterns can help you attain that competitive edge over the rest of the market.
They first originated in the 18th century where they were used by Japanese rice traders. Since Steve Nison introduced them to the West with his 1991 book ‘Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques’, their popularity has surged.
Below is a break down of three of the most popular candlestick patterns used for day trading.

Shooting Star Candlestick

This is often one of the first you see when you open a chart with candlestick patterns. This bearish reversal candlestick suggests a peak. It is precisely the opposite of a hammer candle. It won’t form until at least three subsequent green candles have materialized. This will indicate an increase in price and demand. Usually, buyers lose their cool and clamber for the price to increasing highs before they realize they’ve overpaid.
The upper shadow is usually twice the size of the body. This tells you the last frantic buyers have entered trading just as those that have turned a profit have off-loaded their positions. Short-sellers then usually force the price down to the close of the candle either near or below the open. This traps the late arrivals who pushed the price high. Panic often kicks in at this point as those late arrivals swiftly exit their positions.

https://preview.redd.it/gf5dwjhbrdh31.png?width=300&format=png&auto=webp&s=437ff856bfd6ebc95da34528462ba224d964f01f

Doji Candlestick

One of the most popular candlestick patterns for trading forex is the doji candlestick (doji signifies indecision). This reversal pattern is either bearish or bullish depending on the previous candles. It will have nearly, or the same open and closing price with long shadows. It may look like a cross, but it can have an extremely small body. You will often get an indicator as to which way the reversal will head from the previous candles.
If you see previous candles are bullish, you can anticipate the next one near the underneath of the body low will trigger a short/sell signal when the doji lows break. You’ll then see trail stops above the doji highs.
Alternatively, if the previous candles are bearish then the doji will probably form a bullish reversal. Above the candlestick high, long triggers usually form with a trail stop directly under the doji low.
These candlestick patterns could be used for intraday trading with forex, stocks, cryptocurrencies and any number of other assets. But using candlestick patterns for trading interpretations requires experience, so practice on a demo account before you put real money on the line.

https://preview.redd.it/4yo650lcrdh31.png?width=300&format=png&auto=webp&s=b2aa3cdeef23e44e1e3e3047bbe2604fce0a4768

Hammer Candlestick

This is a bullish reversal candlestick. You can use this candlestick to establish capitulation bottoms. These are then normally followed by a price bump, allowing you to enter a long position.
The hammer candlestick forms at the end of a downtrend and suggests a near-term price bottom. The lower shadow is made by a new low in the downtrend pattern that then closes back near the open. The tail (lower shadow), must be a minimum of twice the size of the actual body.
The tails are those that stopped out as shorts started to cover their positions and those looking for a bargain decided to feast. Volume can also help hammer home the candle. To be certain it is a hammer candle, check where the next candle closes. It must close above the hammer candle low.
Trading with Japanese candlestick patterns has become increasingly popular in recent decades, as a result of the easy to glean and detailed information they provide. This makes them ideal for charts for beginners to get familiar with.

https://preview.redd.it/7snzz8qdrdh31.png?width=300&format=png&auto=webp&s=f83ff82f0980dd30c33bc6886ae7e7ed3a98b72f

More Popular Day Trading Patterns

Using Price Action

Many strategies using simple price action patterns are mistakenly thought to be too basic to yield significant profits. Yet price action strategies are often straightforward to employ and effective, making them ideal for both beginners and experienced traders.
Put simply, price action is how the price is likely to respond at certain levels of resistance or support. Using price action patterns from pdfs and charts will help you identify both swings and trendlines.
Whether you’re day trading stocks or forex or crypto with price patterns, these easy to follow strategies can be applied across the board.

Zone Strategy

So, how do you start day trading with short-term price patterns? you will likely employ a ‘zone strategy’. One obvious bonus to this system is it creates straightforward charts, free from complex indicators and distractions.

https://preview.redd.it/7e5x37zerdh31.png?width=300&format=png&auto=webp&s=2098a4c9df4a4556c3024cec1c176ce50c9806c0

Dead Zone

This empty zone tells you that the price action isn’t headed anywhere. There is no clear up or down trend, the market is at a standoff. If you want big profits, avoid the dead zone completely. No indicator will help you makes thousands of pips here.

The Red Zone

This is where things start to get a little interesting. Once you’re in the red zone the end goal is in sight, and that one hundred pip winner within reach. For example, if the price hits the red zone and continues to the upside, you might want to make a buy trade. It could be giving you higher highs and an indication that it will become an uptrend.
This will be likely when the sellers take hold. If the price hits the red zone and continues to the downside, a sell trade may be on the cards. You’d have new lower lows and a suggestion that it will become a downtrend.

The End Zone

This is where the magic happens. With this strategy, you want to consistently get from the red zone to the end zone. Draw rectangles on your charts like the ones found in the example. Then only trade the zones. If you draw the red zones anywhere from 10-20 pips wide, you’ll have room for the price action to do its usual retracement before heading to the downside or upside.

Outside Bar At Resistance Or Support

You’ll see a bullish outside bar if today’s low exceeded yesterdays, but the stock still rallies and closes above yesterday’s high. If the complete opposite price action took place, you’d have yourself the perfect bearish example.
Unfortunately, it isn’t as straightforward as identifying an outside candlestick and then just placing a trade. It’s prudent to find an outside day after a major break of a trend.

https://preview.redd.it/egb0lp6grdh31.png?width=300&format=png&auto=webp&s=b0170eceea5006464e5832bc3a9083c72ee677ad

Spring At Support

The spring is when the stock tests the low of a range, but then swiftly comes back into trading zone and sets off a new trend. One common mistake traders make is waiting for the last swing low to be reached. However, as you’ve probably realized already, trading setups don’t usually meet your precise requirements so don’t stress about a few pennies.

https://preview.redd.it/q82lap2hrdh31.png?width=300&format=png&auto=webp&s=9e40f0bc25c2df06a1d93edb68b293c858a32592

Little To No Price Retracement

Put simply, less retracement is proof the primary trend is robust and probably going to continue. Forget about coughing up on the numerous Fibonacci retracement levels. The main thing to remember is that you want the retracement to be less than 38.2%. This means even when today’s asset tests the previous swing, you’ll have a greater chance that the breakout will either hold or continue towards the direction of the primary trend.

https://preview.redd.it/ey997b2irdh31.png?width=300&format=png&auto=webp&s=c938aac51e3b3bbf1f45a11c46f4ae3dfd1b6dd4
Trading with price patterns to hand enables you to try any of these strategies. Find the one that fits in with your individual trading style. Remember, you’ll often find the best trading chart patterns aren’t overly complex, instead they paint a clear picture using minimal indicators, reducing the likelihood of mistakes and distraction.

Consider Time Frames

When you start trading with your short term price patterns pdf to hand, it’s essential you also consider time frames in your calculations. In your market, you’ll find a number of time frames simultaneously co-existing. This means you can find conflicting trends within the particular asset your trading. Your stock could be in a primary downtrend whilst also being in an intermediate short-term uptrend.
Many traders make the mistake of focusing on a specific time frame and ignoring the underlying influential primary trend. Usually, the longer the time frame the more reliable the signals. When you reduce your time frames you’ll be distracted by false moves and noise.
Many traders download examples of short-term price patterns but overlook the underlying primary trend, do not make this mistake. You should trade-off 15-minute charts, but utilize 60-minute charts to define the primary trend and 5-minute charts to establish the short-term trend.

Wrapping Up

Our understanding of chart patterns has come along way since the initial 1932 work of Richard Schabacker in ‘Technical Analysis and Stock Market Profits’. Schabacker asserted then, ‘any general stock chart is a combination of countless different patterns and its accurate analysis depends upon constant study, long experience and knowledge of all the fine points, both technical and fundamental…’ So whilst there is an abundance of patterns out there, remember accurate analysis and sustained practice is required to fully reap their benefits.

The source : https://www.daytrading.com/patterns
submitted by JalelTounsi to ethfinance [link] [comments]

Crisis Killer Review | Thinking Of Buying ? Don’t !

A trading robot that can make you honestly Big Time profits without worrying that you play on the chances of winning! Come on, guys – If only it were that simple … ..
We do not know about you, but we pretty tired of seeing robots, training programs and made every week by some of the largest operators in the game plans. And when we came across the Crisis Killer then we must admit that we started automatically to contract with a cynicism …
Crisis Killer Review : Is This Forex robot really good?
However, this bot is written by a guy who made some serious money trading the markets, not to mention the fact that the Crisis Killer is the program that got Europe in turmoil right now. So we realized that we definitely need to get down and dirty with the program before we made any decisions about whether the program is a saint or a sinner.
Read on to discover exactly what we discovered …
What you get for your money?
Thus, as we have already stated, the Crisis Killer is a trading robot which, according to Thomas, its creator, is virtually guaranteed to double your money. And it works as follows:
• It works on real money: with a deposit from 100,000 euros (you do not need to have that amount to trade, so do not panic …). The guy has invested this amount of his own money to show his confidence in the work of the system. And in two months, it shows definitive proof to double that 200 – pretty impressive the way you look at it.
• A never done before – high reward low risk methodology: this is provided by the ability of the robot to recognize when a business begins to falter in less than 5 milliseconds. He opened new positions in order to absorb the bad trade with those positive trend.
• The high trading activity: having between 10 and 30 jobs open at any given time, the bot can accurately measure the risks and rewards. We can therefore combine the value of transactions, cross-checking and refining them in the optimum position to close them all in a split second … and win big!
• Failure of 3-layer proof safety net: The bot uses the taxes myfxchoice through three security reasons. 1) they have a minimum latency between the control and order execution (under 5 milliseconds), 2) they have one of the best reputations around customer satisfaction and c) they give priority support refine the bot if necessary. [Wplapdance name = "CrisisKiller"]
• Small compliant repository: you can trade with as little as $ 100 game system still works the same (and, in fact, with small amounts system actually has a slightly higher winning percentage rate) .- the automatic installation: easy to install and use, with a few clicks of your mouse.
What Is Crisis Killer Software ?
A major drawback of many robots and trading systems is that you must have the knowledge to start. But with the Crisis Killer even a novice can literally plug it in, set up and start making money. Male or female, young or old, rich or poor, this is a program that has no boundaries and will work for everyone.
But do not make the mistake of thinking that this is only for those who know nothing of the negotiations, because nothing could be further from the truth. Implement this little baby, give her a chance to show you what it's like to do and you money before you know it.
Which is Created By The Program?
Just go by the name "Thomas", the creator of the Crisis Killer is a carrier IQ of 167 and the ability to calculate complex literally at the speed of light numerical equations. And he used that gift since his teens, and boy did companies billions of dollars sit up and take note. Red Bull, Magna and voestalpine are some of the conglomerates that have put their trust in Thomas, and his years of work enabled him to create a model of a formula that makes money trading the markets – again and again and again …
Pros - Crisis Killer Review :
• Killer crisis is simple to understand, install and start using. In fact, it is so simple that your five year old son or daughter could probably manage crisis … crissis killer killer review Is This Forex robot really good?
• There is no initial purchase cost of the crisis Killer. You literally get a business license at no cost, and is the creator makes his money by the real estate commission on your winning trades. This means that there is no money taken from your income – period!
• Because the benefits for its creator come from brokerage service (not your pocket), then this guy NEEDS crisis killer working for you. Because the more successful you are, the more money wins – a win-win situation all around.
• The program comes with a 100%, 60 day money back guarantee on the activation fee (the tiny fee you pay to run your business set up. This is the only amount you pay for what either, and even that is covered for two incredible month!
Cons - Crisis Killer Review :
• So the biggest "con" is that it's a limited supply, and when the total take of the crisis killer has been reached then it will be withdrawn. No warning, no last chances, no countdown 24 hours – it'll just be there. So if you want then you need to take the plunge and go for it, because tomorrow it might not be there. The Bottom Line
Well, well, well … We certainly did not expect to get to this point and did as crisis killer. Because, trust us, we had serious doubts about this program before we tried. But we definitely need to eat a huge dose of humble pie, because this little baby actually does what it says on the box (and it is a very rare thing when it comes to trading robots, believe us …).
Of course, it can not remove 100% of the risk – no program can (and when we find that there is by writing reviews penthouse in Monte Carlo), but as long as you never risk more than you can afford to lose, then we think you will be very happy with the results that the crisis brings killer.
Because it certainly gets the thumbs up from us, that's for sure …
submitted by nurjahann to crisiss [link] [comments]

Ataraxia 7 Review | Don’t Download Ataraxia 7 Software Without Bonus !!

Ataraxia 7 Review | Don’t Download Ataraxia 7 Software Without Bonus !!
Read this Comprehensive Joseph Belkin, Ataraxia 7 System Review before you make any mistake and spend your hard earned in vain. Free Download Ataraxia 7 Software...
Product Name : Ataraxia 7
Author : Joseph Belkin,
Cost : Free
Bonus offer : up to ($500)
SPECIAL BONUS URL : Ataraxia 7
What is Ataraxia 7 ?
Ataraxia 7 is an auxiliary trading tool,, known as a mechanized trading robot, or most generally, a "bot". This is a product that breaks down information from stock market and improves the trading knowledge for double options traders. Ataraxia 7 is free trading software.
The best part of Ataraxia 7 is that it expands the exactness level of your expectations and allows you to trade more volume with a higher achievement rate.
Ataraxia 7 Review
The Ataraxia 7 truly is automatic. Most other programs still require you to do some sort of something to keep it going, but this one doesn’t. All you have to do is leave your computer on and it does the rest. It analyzes the markets and only makes trades when the probabilities are in your favour and makes it so you don’t need to know anything about forex trading. There are many features of this software like being able to set how much to trade, how long to trade, setting a stop loss, interest rate, and autopilot. It has everything you would need and possibly more.
The Ataraxia 7 is very easy to use and completely automates the binary trading experience. The software is simple enough to navigate that even novice users will be able to make it work for them. The software itself is being offered for free but only on a limited basis. Once you set up your account, you deposit the money you will be using to trade with and the app itself will automatically make the trades that fit into its criteria to generate maximum profits.
What Exactly Is The Ataraxia 7?
The Ataraxia 7 is a software that can help earn a steady income online with binary options. The software was created to help create a simple and effective method to trade online with binary options.
How Can I Use Ataraxia 7?
The user can benefit from using Ataraxia 7 because the software is constantly checking the market for ups and downs. Once the software has sifted through all the market moves it will then give you detailed input report on how you should invest within binary options.
The only thing the user must do is see where the software is suggesting where they will make profitable returns on their investment and then watch the profitable trades come in.
I Have Never Heard Of Binary Options… Can I Still Use Ataraxia 7?
Trading with binary options can be rather difficult and this is why having a knowledgeable trading and market developed software at your finger tips when trading is so beneficial. It is like having your own stockbroker by your computer’s side helping you with every trade.
I Still Don’t Understand What Binary Options Are?
Trading with binary options is similar to trading on the stock market but doesn’t require such a large start up invest which is why they have become so popular.
When trading with binary options you are trading within currencies rather than shares like in wallstreet. For example you would trade with USD and would trade to EUR if the trade would be profitable for you. Trading with binary options is confusing and many factors have to be taken into account when trading. Having a software like Ataraxia 7 can really show the way to trading and will look out for you to make sure that you are only making the most profitable trades.
The Software if Free? Really?!!
Yes, the Ataraxia 7 software is 100% free. I know this may sound much too good to be true but the software is in fact free.
The only time payment is involved is when you set up your Ataraxia 7 with the trading broker they set you up with and then you much deposit funds into your account to begin trading. This cost is normally $200-250.00 depending on the broker.
So yes, the software is free but in order to make any money using it you have to deposit funds into your account. Once this has been completed then you can immediately begin trading and using the Ataraxia 7 software to show which trades are the more profitable.
Pros: Ataraxia 7 Review
• One of the best things about the software is that it allows a user to learn about the basics of trading, especially if you are new to it. You will find out the best ways to go about the trading procedure, allowing you to make huge profits even at the comfort of your own home.
• Since this is the , it is fully upgraded with improved trading algorithms. As a result, the trading process is much more convenient, letting you get the best of what the software has to offer. If you have any queries, you need not worry because they have customer support through phone and live chat.
• The initial The Ataraxia 7 software can only be used on Windows, but the version can now be used on other operating systems such as Mac, Linux, and even on your tablets and smart phones. Now, you don’t have to confine yourself in front of your computer to make the perfect trade –– you can now make a significant amount of profit even with your tablet or phone anytime you wish.
• You won’t need to make any complicated analyses of the market when you have the software . You just have to follow the instructions provided, apply what you have learned, and place your trades. Because The Ataraxia 7 is pretty straightforward, you will gradually gain the confidence that you’ll need in order to maximize trades in the binary options market.
• Online safety is not a problem with the program because their secure online payment form is powered and tested by the latest programs such as Norton Secured and McAfee Secure.
Cons: Ataraxia 7
• Since the trading market is always volatile and changing, you need to be quick while taking any financial decisions. At times, you may experience some delays in live feeds on your screen. However, if you have a high speed Internet connection, you won’t experience any problems. It is still important to understand that there’s no guarantee to earn or lose money because of the volatile nature of the trading market.
Bottom Line: Ataraxia 7 Review
The software is very easy to use and there is you have to install to get started. The software works in every part of the world. Using this software puts you one step ahead of other traders plus you don’t need to be an expert or analyst to use this software or understand the charts/trends of the market to make money.
Some people think trading in binary market is a very risk thing and a way to loose big chunk of money. Well it’s true that you can loose money if you don’t have any strategy or proper trading ideas. But this software fixes this thing for you and you no longer have to worry about loosing your money.
The software prediction is accurate most of the time and you will definitely be in profit if you take the action at the right time as suggested by the software. There are many more feature of Ataraxia 7 software like setting how much to trade, how longer to trade, setting it on autopilot, setting a stop loss, setting your interest etc. The software is complete and works flawlessly.
You have nothing to lose,the access to Ataraxia 7 is complete FREE! Click the download button to get your Free copy.
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submitted by iasminn to atarraxia [link] [comments]

100%Profitbot Review | Don’t Download 100%Profitbot Software Without Bonus !!

100%Profitbot Review | Don’t Download 100%Profitbot Software Without Bonus !!
Read this Comprehensive SportsMavin’s 100%Profitbot System Review before you make any mistake and spend your hard earned in vain. Free Download 100%Profitbot Software...
Product Name : 100% Profit Bot
Author : SportsMavin
Cost : Free
Bonus offer : up to ($500)
SPECIAL BONUS URL : 100%Profitbot
What is 100%Profit Bot ?
100%Profit Bot is an auxiliary trading tool,, known as a mechanized trading robot, or most generally, a "bot". This is a product that breaks down information from stock market and improves the trading knowledge for double options traders. 100%Profit Bot is free trading software.
The best part of 100%Profit Bot is that it expands the exactness level of your expectations and allows you to trade more volume with a higher achievement rate.
100% Profit Bot Review
The 100% Profit Bot truly is automatic. Most other programs still require you to do some sort of something to keep it going, but this one doesn’t. All you have to do is leave your computer on and it does the rest. It analyzes the markets and only makes trades when the probabilities are in your favour and makes it so you don’t need to know anything about forex trading. There are many features of this software like being able to set how much to trade, how long to trade, setting a stop loss, interest rate, and autopilot. It has everything you would need and possibly more.
The 100% Profit Bot is very easy to use and completely automates the binary trading experience. The software is simple enough to navigate that even novice users will be able to make it work for them. The software itself is being offered for free but only on a limited basis. Once you set up your account, you deposit the money you will be using to trade with and the app itself will automatically make the trades that fit into its criteria to generate maximum profits.
What Exactly Is The 100% Profit Bot?
The 100% Profit Bot is a software that can help earn a steady income online with binary options. The software was created to help create a simple and effective method to trade online with binary options.
How Can I Use 100% Profit Bot?
The user can benefit from using 100% Profit Bot because the software is constantly checking the market for ups and downs. Once the software has sifted through all the market moves it will then give you detailed input report on how you should invest within binary options.
The only thing the user must do is see where the software is suggesting where they will make profitable returns on their investment and then watch the profitable trades come in.
I Have Never Heard Of Binary Options… Can I Still Use 100% Profit Bot?
Trading with binary options can be rather difficult and this is why having a knowledgeable trading and market developed software at your finger tips when trading is so beneficial.
It is like having your own stockbroker by your computer’s side helping you with every trade.
I Still Don’t Understand What Binary Options Are?
Trading with binary options is similar to trading on the stock market but doesn’t require such a large start up invest which is why they have become so popular.
When trading with binary options you are trading within currencies rather than shares like in wallstreet. For example you would trade with USD and would trade to EUR if the trade would be profitable for you. Trading with binary options is confusing and many factors have to be taken into account when trading. Having a software like 100% Profit Bot can really show the way to trading and will look out for you to make sure that you are only making the most profitable trades.
The Software if Free? Really?!! ]
Yes, the 100% Profit Bot software is 100% free. I know this may sound much too good to be true but the software is in fact free.
The only time payment is involved is when you set up your 100% Profit Bot with the trading broker they set you up with and then you much deposit funds into your account to begin trading. This cost is normally $200-250.00 depending on the broker.
So yes, the software is free but in order to make any money using it you have to deposit funds into your account. Once this has been completed then you can immediately begin trading and using the 100% Profit Bot software to show which trades are the more profitable.
Pros:
• One of the best things about the software is that it allows a user to learn about the basics of trading, especially if you are new to it. You will find out the best ways to go about the trading procedure, allowing you to make huge profits even at the comfort of your own home.
• Since this is the , it is fully upgraded with improved trading algorithms. As a result, the trading process is much more convenient, letting you get the best of what the software has to offer. If you have any queries, you need not worry because they have customer support through phone and live chat.
• The initial The 100% Profit Bot software can only be used on Windows, but the version can now be used on other operating systems such as Mac, Linux, and even on your tablets and smart phones. Now, you don’t have to confine yourself in front of your computer to make the perfect trade –– you can now make a significant amount of profit even with your tablet or phone anytime you wish.
• You won’t need to make any complicated analyses of the market when you have the software . You just have to follow the instructions provided, apply what you have learned, and place your trades. Because The 100% Profit Bot is pretty straightforward, you will gradually gain the confidence that you’ll need in order to maximize trades in the binary options market.
• Online safety is not a problem with the program because their secure online payment form is powered and tested by the latest programs such as Norton Secured and McAfee Secure.
Cons:
• Since the trading market is always volatile and changing, you need to be quick while taking any financial decisions. At times, you may experience some delays in live feeds on your screen. However, if you have a high speed Internet connection, you won’t experience any problems. It is still important to understand that there’s no guarantee to earn or lose money because of the volatile nature of the trading market.
Bottom Line:
The software is very easy to use and there is you have to install to get started. The software works in every part of the world. Using this software puts you one step ahead of other traders plus you don’t need to be an expert or analyst to use this software or understand the charts/trends of the market to make money.
Some people think trading in binary market is a very risk thing and a way to loose big chunk of money. Well it’s true that you can loose money if you don’t have any strategy or proper trading ideas. But this software fixes this thing for you and you no longer have to worry about loosing your money.
The software prediction is accurate most of the time and you will definitely be in profit if you take the action at the right time as suggested by the software. There are many more feature of 100% Profit Bot software like setting how much to trade, how longer to trade, setting it on autopilot, setting a stop loss, setting your interest etc. The software is complete and works flawlessly.
You have nothing to lose,the access to 100% Profit Bot is complete FREE! Click the download button to get your Free copy.
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Fast Cash Biz Review So Is Fast Cash Biz SCAM Or LEGIT? The Truth About FastCash.Biz System By Madison Clark & David Graham Reviews-Best Binary Option Trading Software?

Fast Cash Biz Review So Is Fast Cash Biz SCAM Or LEGIT? The Truth About FastCash.Biz System By Madison Clark & David Graham Reviews-Best Binary Option Trading Software? Fast Cash Biz Review – Does Madison Clark & David Graham’s Fast Cash Biz REALLY WORK? Check my unbiased review. What Is Fast Cash Biz Software? Find the review below..
Product Name: Fast Cash Biz
Product Creators: Madison Clark & David Graham
Official Website: Access The NEW Fast Cash Biz System!! CLICK HERE NOW!!!
Fast Cash Biz Review
In a world where it is a challenge to make money, have you ever wondered how it is possible for some people to turn their $1,000 investment into over $20,000 in just a week? What exactly do they do that allows them to earn such big amounts over and over again? The answer to that are binary options. Basically, those who know how to read the market understand very well the fluctuations and trends in stocks. What’s great about this is that it allows you to invest in low risk trades that expire just within 15 minutes. This means that in a short time, you will already find out if your investment paid off or not. Of course, it is completely understandable for a beginner to feel hesitant about this at first. After all, an investment still bears a risk, no matter how low it may be. No one wants to invest their hard-earned money blindly, but is there a way to succeed in binary options even if you have no prior experience? This is what this Fast Cash Biz aims to explore.
What is Binary Options?
Binary option is a trade system of stock or currency based on trend. Not always when the trend downward have to buy and selling when the trend upward because this trade is full of risk, big win, lost or even run out. However, taking decision must be based on correct analytic and fast then action quickly.
What Is Fast Cash Biz Software?
Fast Cash Biz is the lifetime work of Madison Clark that has partnered with top rated Home Trading Training Specialists to provide to you, the user precise real-time financial info feeds to help you make more informed trades with binary options trading.
Fast Cash Biz isn’t a magic application that promises to give immediate wealth with the touch of a button, this app was designed so you, can capture real-time data within the currency pair market, to assist you make smarter trading decisions.
Fast Cash Biz searches for major up and down movements, after which warns you as to when this happens allowing you to then put a trade. Fast Cash Biz works on Binary Options platforms, which lets you use it to put trades which expire in One minute to 1 hour. And thus you could realize your returns much faster compared to regular fix trading.
Click Here To Claim Your Fast Cash Biz LIFETIME User License!!
Listed below are a few of the benefits of using Fast Cash Biz:
Trade on Multiple Platforms at Once
Get Free Financial Data Feeds that can typically cost $540+ per month
Fully Customizable Alert Parameters for Increased Trading Capacity
Fast Cash Biz is user friendly, and anybody with a web browser is able to use the application soon after purchase and begin trading. They now provide 1-2-1 telephone help to get you started, and they also provide high quality online seminars frequently so that you can see the software program live in action.
Fast Cash Biz lets you personalize the pip setting and time-frame in which it alerts you to a specific pip movement. This means that there are loads of combinations, and nearly endless possibilities to be profitable with the software.
The Fast Cash Biz software works together with various binary options platforms. Installing it on your computer will allow you to:
Trade on multiple trading platforms at the same time. Have access to free data feed Customize various alert parameters Get trade alerts instantly Win more often compared with using other software Win more than 90% of the time
Of course, this Fast Cash Biz review is not complete without saying that the financial data feeds that you will have access to are advanced and are in fact worth more than $600 per month. This means that what you are getting is valuable information that will surely help you make the best trading decisions in your account.
Pros:
One of the best things about Fast Cash Biz is that it allows a user to learn about the basics of trading, especially if you are new to it. You will find out the best ways to go about the trading procedure, allowing you to make huge profits even at the comfort of your own home.
Since this is the , it is fully upgraded with improved trading algorithms. As a result, the trading process is much more convenient, letting you get the best of what the software has to offer. If you have any queries, you need not worry because they have customer support through phone and live chat.
The initial Fast Cash Biz software can only be used on Windows, but the version can now be used on other operating systems such as Mac, Linux, and even on your tablets and smart phones. Now, you don’t have to confine yourself in front of your computer to make the perfect trade –– you can now make a significant amount of profit even with your tablet or phone anytime you wish.
You won’t need to make any complicated analyses of the market when you have Fast Cash Biz . You just have to follow the instructions provided, apply what you have learned, and place your trades. Because Fast Cash Biz is pretty straightforward, you will gradually gain the confidence that you’ll need in order to maximize trades in the binary options market.
Online safety is not a problem with Fast Cash Biz because their secure online payment form is powered and tested by the latest programs such as Norton Secured and McAfee Secure.
Cons:
Since the trading market is always volatile and changing, you need to be quick while taking any financial decisions. At times, you may experience some delays in live feeds on your screen. However, if you have a high speed Internet connection, you won’t experience any problems. It is still important to understand that there’s no guarantee to earn or lose money because of the volatile nature of the trading market.
Click Here To Download The New Fast Cash BIz Software Right NOW!
Is The Fast Cash Biz a Scam?
After testing the Fast Cash Biz for months I can personally testify that the Fast Cash Biz is probably the best solution out there. It’s far from a scam and it’s priced fairly and suitable for all budgets. If you are interested in currency options, the Fast Cash Biz is a great choice as it focuses on 15 currency pairs that you will find available on all broker platforms. Remember that not all brokers offer all the bot’s currency pairs; therefore it’s recommended to register with one of the recommended Fast Cash Biz brokers directly from the software. If you tried other services or imitations, you need to get with a serious service so make sure to visit the real Fast Cash Biz! Remember that the Live Support is there to answer your questions so take advantage of their awesome service!
Fast Cash Biz Scam
Many customers who have tried using the Fast Cash Biz have reported 85% to 92% success rate. As it has been developed to help people trade regardless of knowledge and experience, eventually, users will learn how to accurately predict trends in the market within a specific time period, giving them a higher chance of making profits. In addition, the user-friendly interface has made it trusted software among many aspiring traders. If you wish to earn huge amounts of money from your own home, Fast Cash Biz is your best shot at it.
There Is Only A Very Limited Spaces Available
So Act Now Before It's Too Late
Click Here to Download Fast Cash Biz Software Right Now
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Quick Cash System | Don’t Download Quick Cash System Software Without Bonus !!

Quick Cash System | Don’t Download Quick Cash System Software Without Bonus !! Read this Comprehensive Quick Cash System System Review before you make any mistake and spend your hard earned in vain. Free Download Quick Cash System Software...
Product Name : Quick Cash System
Cost : Free
Bonus offer : up to ($500)
SPECIAL BONUS URL : Quickcashsystem
What is Quick Cash System ?
Quick Cash System is an auxiliary trading tool,, known as a mechanized trading robot, or most generally, a "bot". This is a product that breaks down information from stock market and improves the trading knowledge for double options traders. Quick Cash System is free trading software.
The best part of Quick Cash System is that it expands the exactness level of your expectations and allows you to trade more volume with a higher achievement rate.
Quick Cash System
The Quick Cash System truly is automatic. Most other programs still require you to do some sort of something to keep it going, but this one doesn’t. All you have to do is leave your computer on and it does the rest. It analyzes the markets and only makes trades when the probabilities are in your favour and makes it so you don’t need to know anything about forex trading. There are many features of this software like being able to set how much to trade, how long to trade, setting a stop loss, interest rate, and autopilot. It has everything you would need and possibly more.
The Quick Cash System is very easy to use and completely automates the binary trading experience. The software is simple enough to navigate that even novice users will be able to make it work for them. The software itself is being offered for free but only on a limited basis. Once you set up your account, you deposit the money you will be using to trade with and the app itself will automatically make the trades that fit into its criteria to generate maximum profits.
What Exactly Is The Quick Cash System?
The Quick Cash System is a software that can help earn a steady income online with binary options. The software was created to help create a simple and effective method to trade online with binary options.
How Can I Use Quick Cash System?
The user can benefit from using Quick Cash System because the software is constantly checking the market for ups and downs. Once the software has sifted through all the market moves it will then give you detailed input report on how you should invest within binary options.
The only thing the user must do is see where the software is suggesting where they will make profitable returns on their investment and then watch the profitable trades come in.
I Have Never Heard Of Binary Options… Can I Still Use Quick Cash System?
Trading with binary options can be rather difficult and this is why having a knowledgeable trading and market developed software at your finger tips when trading is so beneficial.
It is like having your own stockbroker by your computer’s side helping you with every trade.
I Still Don’t Understand What Binary Options Are?
Trading with binary options is similar to trading on the stock market but doesn’t require such a large start up invest which is why they have become so popular.
When trading with binary options you are trading within currencies rather than shares like in wall street. For example you would trade with USD and would trade to EUR if the trade would be profitable for you. Trading with binary options is confusing and many factors have to be taken into account when trading. Having a software like Quick Cash System can really show the way to trading and will look out for you to make sure that you are only making the most profitable trades.
The Software if Free? Really?!!
Yes, the Quick Cash System software is 100% free. I know this may sound much too good to be true but the software is in fact free.
The only time payment is involved is when you set up your Quick Cash System with the trading broker they set you up with and then you much deposit funds into your account to begin trading. This cost is normally $200-250.00 depending on the broker.
So yes, the software is free but in order to make any money using it you have to deposit funds into your account. Once this has been completed then you can immediately begin trading and using the Quick Cash System software to show which trades are the more profitable.
Pros:
• One of the best things about the software is that it allows a user to learn about the basics of trading, especially if you are new to it. You will find out the best ways to go about the trading procedure, allowing you to make huge profits even at the comfort of your own home.
• Since this is the , it is fully upgraded with improved trading algorithms. As a result, the trading process is much more convenient, letting you get the best of what the software has to offer. If you have any queries, you need not worry because they have customer support through phone and live chat.
• The initial The Quick Cash System software can only be used on Windows, but the version can now be used on other operating systems such as Mac, Linux, and even on your tablets and smart phones. Now, you don’t have to confine yourself in front of your computer to make the perfect trade –– you can now make a significant amount of profit even with your tablet or phone anytime you wish.
• You won’t need to make any complicated analyses of the market when you have the software . You just have to follow the instructions provided, apply what you have learned, and place your trades. Because The Quick Cash System is pretty straightforward, you will gradually gain the confidence that you’ll need in order to maximize trades in the binary options market.
• Online safety is not a problem with the program because their secure online payment form is powered and tested by the latest programs such as Norton Secured and McAfee Secure.
Cons:
• Since the trading market is always volatile and changing, you need to be quick while taking any financial decisions. At times, you may experience some delays in live feeds on your screen. However, if you have a high speed Internet connection, you won’t experience any problems. It is still important to understand that there’s no guarantee to earn or lose money because of the volatile nature of the trading market.
Bottom Line:
The software is very easy to use and there is you have to install to get started. The software works in every part of the world. Using this software puts you one step ahead of other traders plus you don’t need to be an expert or analyst to use this software or understand the charts/trends of the market to make money.
Some people think trading in binary market is a very risk thing and a way to loose big chunk of money. Well it’s true that you can loose money if you don’t have any strategy or proper trading ideas. But this software fixes this thing for you and you no longer have to worry about loosing your money.
The software prediction is accurate most of the time and you will definitely be in profit if you take the action at the right time as suggested by the software. There are many more feature of Quick Cash System software like setting how much to trade, how longer to trade, setting it on autopilot, setting a stop loss, setting your interest etc. The software is complete and works flawlessly.
You have nothing to lose, the access to Quick Cash System is complete FREE! Click the download button to get your Free copy.
submitted by nisitara2 to quickcashx [link] [comments]

James Chen, CMT: High-Probability Trend-Following Entries and Exits James Chen: Finding High-Probability Entries and Exits ... how to find trend in forex market – how to predict forex trend Probability Meter Indicator for MetaTrader 4 Forex Trading What Is High Probability Forex Trading? How to Trade like a Market Maker—High Probability Trend Trading! Trend Trading Strategies  High Probability Trend Trading Entries  Works For Forex Or Stocks

FX Trend free is a feature-limited version of our unique trend analysis ... It analyzes the momentum and strength of all major currencies to determine high probability currency combinations FREE. Another Symbol Daily . Maxim Kuznetsov. AnotherSymbol displays the relative movement of another symbol on the current chart as candlesticks, High/Low or Close lines. The plotted chart is aligned to ... The Forex Scanner is a complete forex trading solution designed for the very popular Metatrader 4 platform which consists of two very powerful trading indicators: ForexScannerST and ForexScannerLT. ForexScanner System Description: The best and safest trades are made in the main direction of the trend. Once the trend is identified the next step is timing. […] Use it with your own trend-following strategy for confirmation. You can put it in any charts and timeframes. If there is no trendline appears in some timeframes, it means there is no possible high probability breakout. If you don't have a solid trend-following strategy yet, you can use this indicator together with the VOLATILITY WATCHER ... FREE DOWNLOAD High Probability Forex Trend Session Channel Trading System and Stratgy – This is an advanced forex trading system ... and EURJPY H4 Donchian Channel Breakout Trading Strategy Forex Multi Trend Market Signals : Trading the London and European Session with a Very Profitable Strategy TOP10 BEST Full Time Forex Trader Trading System and Strategy 2 MACD Effortless Forex Swing ... Forex One System detects the trend, filter the trend and generates the fresh trend following market entry signals for its users. While trying it, you may feel like you’ve found the easiest forex trading strategy that you’ve ever experienced at the market. Just with some basic study, even a newbie trader can apply it to step in the trend-based forex trading activities without any hassle. Instead of following trends, you’re trying to predict market reversals. Instead of proper risk management, you put on a huge bet because this trade “feels good”. Now… If you’re doing any of the above, then it will be difficult to identify high probability trading setups. But don’t worry. I’ve got good news for you. Because in this post, I’ll teach you step-by-step on how to ... Jun 25, 2018 - Copy Forex Trades of a service with verified 5-year track record on trading accounts. Try DEMO till you are satisfied. FREE DOWNLOAD - Forex High Probability Half Trend Trading System and Setup. Let me show you how to use this "High Probability Half Trend Trading System" in the Trend following is an investment strategy that tries to take advantage of long-term moves that seem to play out in various markets. The strategy aims to work on the market trend mechanism and take benefit from both sides of the market, enjoying the profits from the ups and downs of the finacial markets. Traders who use this approach can use current market price calculation, moving averages and ... 171# MultiTimeFrame Market Analysis; 172# Andrew Forex; 173# Awesome; 174# Winning Solution Gold; 175# Forex Neutrino; 176# High Probability System; 177# Closed Daily Candles; 178# I-Regression System; 179# Brain Trend; 180# RSI System; 181# Obos System; 182# High Low with Adx; 183# Dynamite Brian Trend; 184# Elephant Hunter Method; 185# Forex ...

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James Chen, CMT: High-Probability Trend-Following Entries and Exits

How to use the trend and drill down analysis to find the best stocks in any time frame. Many forex traders are more or less confused with the market trends,and have no idea what should they do even though a series of trading charts and graphs are given to them. High probability forex trading ... 95% Winning Forex Trading Formula - Beat The Market Maker📈 - Duration: 37:53. TRADE ATS 1,290,947 views. 37:53. The TRUTH: How well trend trading actually ... James Chen, CMT, Chief Technical Strategist at City Index Group, teaches high-probability trade entry and exit techniques when trend-following in the forex m... High probability forex trading strategy with almost 100% accuracy ... FREE FOREX CURRENCY POWER DASHBOARD - Duration: 3:38. Sasan FX1 11,324 views. 3:38. Scalping Forex Market Using The Currency ... James Chen, CMT, Chief Technical Strategist at City Index Group, teaches high-probability trade entry and exit techniques when trend-following in the forex market. Learn how to identify effective ... In this video I cover what is High Probability Forex Trading. Before considering a valid trade setup in the market, a trader should make sure trade is in a high probability area in the market and ...

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